吉兰泰盐湖卤水化学动态变化的灰色—马尔科夫过程预测分析  

Grey-Markov Process Prediction on the Chemical Dynamic Changes of Jilantai Salt Lake Brine

作　　者：庞西磊[1] 胡东生[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学资源环境科学学院,湖南长沙410081 [2]西北大学大陆动力学国家重点实验室,陕西西安710069

出　　处：《盐湖研究》2009年第2期27-33,共7页Journal of Salt Lake Research

基　　金：湖南省重点学科建设项目(编号:DL2007001)资助

摘　　要：卤水中的化学成分因受多种因素影响,使其在时间序列上的变化波动强烈而规律难循。灰色—马尔科夫过程预测是预测事物在时间序列上发展趋势的一种良好有效的统计分析手段,它将灰色系统预测法和马尔科夫过程预测法有效结合,既弥补了两种方法各自的缺点,又能充分考虑数据给予的信息,可以大大提高随机波动较大数据序列的预测精度。本文用灰色—马尔科夫过程预测法对吉兰泰盐湖卤水中几种主要离子浓度的变化进行了趋势分析,分析结果发现几种离子浓度的变化均有一定的规律性,而且这些离子在预测数据的变化规律同原始实测数据变化规律有很好的一致性。There are so many factors influencing the evolution of salt lake brine, which cause the brine chemical composition changing randomly. Grey-Markov process prediction is an effective method to predict the development trend of time sequence. The combination of Grey system and Markov process can make up for the shortcomings of them, fully use the given data, and improve the prediction precision of stochastic fluctuating data sequence by bring a more objective and accurate result. Grey-Markov process prediction method was applied to analyze the trend of several major ionic concentrations in Jilantai salt lake brine in the paper. It was found that the ionic concentration change has the regularity, and the change between the predicted data in the future and the original data being similar.

关 键 词：灰色GM(1 1)模型 马尔科夫过程 灰色—马尔科夫过程预测 吉兰泰盐湖 卤水 

分 类 号：P641.464[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]