珠江口地区台风风暴潮的数值模拟试验  

Numerical simulation of typhoon storm surge in Zhujiang River Estuary

作　　者：李杰[1,2] 于福江[3] 李洋[1] 史尧[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军61741部队,北京100081 [2]解放军理工大学气象学院,南京211101 [3]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《海洋预报》2009年第2期1-6,共6页Marine Forecasts

摘　　要：本文选取了3个珠江口对造成严重风暴潮灾害的南海西北向路径的台风作为个例,利用国家海洋环境预报中心建立的业务化的台风风暴潮模式进行风暴潮后报检验。将结果与珠江口地区三个验潮站实际观测资料进行对比发现:模式的后报效果比较理想,对业务预报中最为关心的最大风暴增水值模拟较好,说明该模式对模拟这类型路径台风引起的风暴增水有较好的预报适用性。并且进一步发现:强度越大的台风,增水峰值模拟效果越好;该地区各验潮站的最大增水通常发生在台风中心距离验潮站最短的几个小时内。In this paper, the storm surge model which has been operated by the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center has been used to simulate the storm surge initiated by three northwest directional typhoons in South China Sea. By contrast with the results generated by the original model and the data collected from the tide stations, it is found that the model can simulate the whole process well, especially for the peak value. Furthermore, we find that the peak value will be more accurate while the typhoon gets stronger; the peak value usually appeared after the center of typhoon had a shortest distance from of these tide stations for a few hours＇ period..

关 键 词：台风风暴潮 数值模拟 风暴增水 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]