可靠性理论在公共安全领域的应用研究  

The Application of Reliability Theory in the Field of Public Safety

作　　者：彭伟功[1] 周继军[2] 向晓东[3] 李春光[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州航空工业管理学院资源环境研究所,郑州450015 [2]河南工程学院环境工程系,郑州450052 [3]武汉科技大学安全与环境工程系,武汉430081

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2009年第4期16-20,共5页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：河南省软科学项目(082400452430)

摘　　要：对公共安全体系从系统可靠性的视角,综合运用可靠性方面的知识,构建公共安全系统混联模型;进而将可靠性分配理论与故障树分析方法相结合,根据系统安全目标的要求,确定混联系统的第一层次各单元事件的可靠性目标值,对构成各单元的各个下属单元采取最小工作量可靠度分配方法,从而建立系统中各单元可靠度再分配量化模型。通过建筑物火灾引起人员伤亡事故实例,详述系统各单元可靠性分配的计算过程。研究表明,可靠性理论可以成功地应用到公共安全领域;使系统在给定的目标值条件下达到系统的安全性优化,实现了公共安全保障效能,减小灾害损失。The public safety complex system model from the angle of reliability was constructed by using the knowledge of reliability. Based on this, the reliability request of each unit of the first layer was decided according to the given value of system safety target by combining reliability assignment theory with fault tree analysis （ FTA）, and then the reliability was assigned by minimization of effort algorithm among each unit of the second layer, and so on. Thus, a quantitative model for calculating the reliability of each component in system was set up. Finally, this method was demonstrated by an example. It shows that reliability theory can be successfully applied in the field of public safety and can conveniently fulfill the optimization of system safety under the condition of a given target so as to realize guarantee effectiveness of public safety and reduce the disaster loss.

关 键 词：公共安全 可靠性理论 可靠性分配 故障树分析(FTA) 任务可靠性模型 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]