AHP-SWOT法在道路交通安全改善策略中的应用  

Application of AHP-SWOT Method in the Improving of Road Traffic Safety Strategy

作　　者：钱卫东[1] 刘彬霞[1] 刘志强[1] 顾新友 

机构地区：[1]江苏大学汽车与交通工程学院,镇江212013 [2]江苏省镇江市公安局交通巡逻警察支队,镇江212001

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2009年第4期121-126,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：科技部国家科技支撑项目(2007BAK35B02)

摘　　要：针对交通事故的特点,探讨AHP-SWOT方法在道路交通事故评价中的具体应用。SWOT(优势—劣势,机会—威胁)分析法是一种综合考虑系统外部环境和内部条件的各种因素,对其进行系统评价并从中选择最佳策略的方法,但是它缺少定量分析的过程。AHP(层次分析法)具有定性分析和定量分析相结合的优势,采用SWOT和AHP相结合的方法进行评价更加合理和准确。将AHP-SWOT方法应用于道路交通安全评价系统,分析道路交通安全系统所面临的机会和威胁、所处的优势和劣势,可为正确评价道路安全水平、制定合理的道路交通安全改善策略提供理论指导。实例证明该方法可行有效。In light of the features of traffic accidents, the concrete application of AHP - SWOT method to the evaluation of road traffic accidents is explored. SWOT method is a method that comprehensively considers all the factors of system exterior environment and interior condition and then chooses the best operation strategy through making a systemic evaluation on these factors, but it can only make qualitative analysis. However, the Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） has the advantages of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. Therefore, combining SWOT and AHP in the application of road traffic accident evaluation is more reasonable and accurate. The strength （S）, weakness （W）, opportunity （O） and threat （T） of road traffic safety system are analyzed, and improved strategy is proposed with AHP- SWOT method. The results show that this method is feasible and effective.

关 键 词：道路 交通安全 改善策略 SWOT(优势—劣势 机会—威胁)分析方法 层次分析法(AHP) 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]