亚马孙地区火、土地利用及气候变化间的协同作用  

Synergisms among Fire,Land Use,and Climate Change in the Amazon

作　　者：Mark A·Cochrane William F·Laurance 寒江（译） 

机构地区：[1]南达科他州立大学卓越地理信息科学中心（GIScCE）教授 [2]巴拿马史密森热带研究所 [3]中国

出　　处：《AMBIO－人类环境杂志》2008年第7期454-458,540,共5页

摘　　要：亚马孙正经历着火的快速改造。采伐和森林破碎化通过增强森林干燥作用、增加易燃物而使火灾发生率急剧上升,一直经历低强度地表火灾的森林更易遭受灾难性的火灾。卫星一般每年检测到亚马孙流域4万～5万处分散起火点的热成像图斑,随着新的公路和基础设施在该地区扩张,这一数字还会增加。大范围毁林会通过减少区域蒸散并产生隔绝水汽的烟羽(smoke plumes)而使得亚马孙流域易于遭受火灾,这与许多因素有关。尽管人们尚有许多不确定的地方,亚马孙地区可能也受未来全球变暖和大气变化的影响。大多数模型认为该流域在本世纪将变得更暖,降水量将受何种程度影响则看法不一。最令人悚然的情景预言了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动的持久破坏作用,导致亚马孙强烈加剧的干旱或区域与全球气候变化之间的破坏性协同作用。The Amazon is being rapidly transformed by fire.Logging and forest fragmentation sharply elevate fire incidence by increasing forest desiccation and fuel loads,and forests that have experienced a low-intensity surface fire are vulnerable to far more catastrophic fires.Satellites typically detect thermal signatures from 40 000 to 50 000 separate fires in the Amazon each year,and this number could increase as new highways and infrastructure expand across the basin.Many are concerned that largescale deforestation,by reducing regional evapotranspiration and creating moisturetrapping smoke plumes,will make the basin increasingly vulnerable to fire.The Amazon may also be affected by future global warming and atmospheric changes, although much remains uncertain.Most models suggest the basin will become warmer throughout this century,although there is no consensus about how precipitation will be affected.The most alarming scenarios project a permanent disruption of the E1 Nin~~o-Southern Oscillation,leading to greatly increased drought or destructive synergisms between regional and global climate change in the Amazon.

关 键 词：协同作用 气候变化 亚马孙地区 土地利用 火灾发生率 干燥作用 基础设施 区域蒸散 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] F321.1[经济管理—产业经济]