自然环境因素对能源效率的影响--中国各地区的理论节能潜力和实际节能潜力分析  

Influence of Environmental Factors on Energy Efficiency——Analysis on Regional Theoretic Energy Saving Potential and Real Energy Saving Potential

作　　者：杨红亮 史丹[2] 肖洁 

机构地区：[1]亚洲开发银行东亚局能源部,菲律宾马尼拉 [2]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京100836 [3]LGC Limited,Teddington,England

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2009年第4期73-84,共12页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“我国能源利用效率及影响因素分析”(批准号 50556002);凯风公益基金会支持项目“我国能源利用效率及影响因素分析”

摘　　要：本文认为对地区能效可能产生影响的因素有很多,既可能是经济社会因素,比如说能源消费结构、产业结构、人均GDP等,也可能是自然环境因素,比如说地理位置、地形地貌、气温、日照时间等。经济社会因素内生于人类社会本身,其对能效造成的影响最终可以通过政策调整、改变人们的能源消费方式等手段来加以改变。与此不同,自然环境因素外生于人类社会,其对能效造成的影响不以人的意志为转移。从根本上讲,经济社会因素对能效造成的影响部分才是可以真正实现的节能潜力。基于这样的理念,本文提出了"理论节能潜力"和"实际节能潜力"的概念,并且首创了把环境变量纳入全要素能效考察的方法和经济学模型。根据2005年我国各地区的数据,本文在考虑了四种典型的自然环境因素的基础上对各地区的能效和节能潜力做了比较测定。结果表明:一个地区的能效在很大程度上受到其所处的自然环境因素的影响,以2005年数据为例,本文所选取的四个变量对地区能效造成的影响大约在12%—16%之间;相对于国内先进地区的能效水平,各地区实际节能潜力的平均值大约为0.140—0.224吨标煤/万元。这说明国家有关部门在制定能源政策时应该重视各地区不同的自然环境因素对能效造成的影响,只有这样制定的能源政策才能更有的放矢,制定的节能措施才能更有针对性和可操作性。This paper points out that factors which could influence regional energy efficiency include socioeconomic factors （e.g. energy consumption makeup, industrial structure, GDP per capital, etc.） and environmental factors （e.g. geographical location, topographic condition, weather, sunlight time, etc.）. Generally speaking, socioeconomic factors are inside human society, and their influence can be changed through methods such as policy reform and adjustment of energy consumer＇s behavior. Environmental factors are, however, outside human society, and their influence on energy efficiency are totally out of control. Therefore, it is reasonable to say tbat only influence caused by socioeconomic factors is energy saving potential which can be realized. This article then differentiates concepts of ＇theoretic energy saving potential＇ and ＇real energy saving potential＇, and initiates total-factor energy efficiency models to incorporate influence of environmental factors. Based on data on four typical environmental factors, regional energy saving potentials in 2005 are investigated and compared. Results show that： （1）Regional energy efficiency is largely influenced by environmental factors. In 2005, influence of the four selected environmental factors combined is around 12%-16%; （2）Compared to the leading energy efficiency level in China, regional real energy saving potential is in average about 0.140--0.224 toe/10000 RMB. This indicates that governmental organs should notice the geographic differences among regions when making national or regional energy policy and also regional energy efficiency improvement targets.

关 键 词：全要素能源效率 自然环境因素 理论节能潜力 实际节能潜力 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]