中国1986年至2006年耕地非农化数量与经济发展关系的计量分析  

Econometric Analysis of Relationships between Cultivated Land Conversion Quantity and Economic Developments in China

作　　者：刘庆[1,2] 陈利根[1] 张凤荣[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,南京210095 [2]湖南农业大学资源环境学院,长沙410128 [3]中国农业大学资源环境学院,北京100193

出　　处：《资源科学》2009年第5期787-793,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目:“农村集体建设用地流转:主要模式、驱动机制与公共政策选择”(编号:70673037);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目:“工业化、城市化进程中的农村土地问题研究”(编号:04JZD0008)

摘　　要：为探讨我国耕地非农化数量变化与经济发展的动态关系和相互作用,以协调耕地非农化进程与经济发展的矛盾,本文采用经济计量分析方法检验了1986年～2006年耕地非农化数量与经济发展水平之间的动态演进关系。研究结果表明我国耕地非农化数量与经济发展水平之间存在协整关系,即两者之间存在长期均衡关系,但短期内却存在失衡,短期波动向长期均衡趋近的调整幅度达到68.07%;耕地非农化数量变化对来自经济发展的冲击响应强烈,且必然带动数量的急剧增加,而经济发展对来自耕地非农化数量的冲击响应微弱,耕地非农化资源消耗量的上升对经济的促进作用十分有限;因此,为协调耕地非农化进程与经济发展的矛盾,实现既保经济又保耕地的目标,必须从城市土地内部挖潜,把土地节约集约利用与"先补后占"等系列耕地保护政策作为主要途径。The purpose of this paper is to explore the dynamic relationships and interactions between conversion quantity of cultivated land and economic development, so as to harmonize the conflicts between cultivated land conversion with economic development in our country. Then it applied econometrics analysis to the long equilibrium relation, co-integration analysis and impulse response function of economic development with the quantity of cultivated land resource conversion from 1986 to 2006 in China. The results show that： 1） the relationship between cultivated land resource conversion quantity and economic development in China is co-integration （equilibrium） in long term, whereas things are different in short term, which is 68.07% of the equilibrium in long term; 2） the response of cultivated land resource conversion quantity to economic development impulse is remarkable and it may largely increase the conversion quantity, which rises nearly 30%. However, the response of economic development to cultivated land conversion quantity impulse isn＇t remarkable, and the consumption quantity of cultivated land conversion does not have a strong effect on economic development, which probably remains only 10% higher; 3） Due to the shock of economic development, response effect of conversion quantity of cultivated land resource presents a growing trend like sine wave with a lag of about 8 years, after which, the duration is relatively longer. Above facts reveal that with the fast development of our country, it is unavoidable that many cultivated land resources are occupied because of the scarcity of urban land resource and the importance of land as one of the three product factors. However, it doesn＇t denote that the more cultivated land is converted, the faster economy develops. In other words, the contribution of the former to the latter is very limit. Therefore, in order to coordinate the conflict between cultivated land conversion and economic development, and reach the goal of ＂keeping economic development

关 键 词：耕地非农化 经济发展 协整检验 误差修正模型 脉冲响应函数 方差分解 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]