苏锡常地区1995年至2005年城市用地扩展的驱动力分析  

Analysis of Driving Forces of Urban Land Expansion in Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou Region

作　　者：唐菊华[1,2] 吕昌河[1] 杨续超 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]杭州万通土地规划设计有限公司,杭州310020 [3]浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州310017

出　　处：《资源科学》2009年第5期801-806,共6页Resources Science

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(编号:KZCZ-YW-421);国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40671007)

摘　　要：根据较详尽的统计资料,利用SPSS软件,对苏锡常地区1995年～2005年城市用地变化的特点及其影响因子进行了分析。结果表明:①近11年来,该地区的城市用地总面积年均增长45.55km2,增长率为12.83%,呈现出高度线性递增;受人口增长和民营经济快速发展等因素的影响,大部分县级城市(吴江市、张家港市、江阴市、溧阳市和昆山市)的人均城市用地面积增长率远高于地级城市市区的人均城市用地面积增长率;②二元变量相关分析表明,城市用地扩展与城市市区非农业人口、地区生产总值、固定资产投资、职工年平均工资和房地产投资完成额皆成高度正相关关系;但通过偏相关分析发现,城市市区非农业人口和地区生产总值才是影响该地区城市用地扩展的主要因素,二者不但自身对城市用地的扩展产生直接的影响,而且它们通过刺激固定资产投资、职工年平均工资和房地产投资完成额的增加对城市用地的扩展起作用。Urbanization is one of most important characteristics of global development. The rapid development of urbanization leads to the expansion of urban land use. Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou Region is one of the areas with the highest rate of economic growth and urbanization development in China. Based on bivariate correlation and partial correlation obtained in SPSS, we analyzed the characteristics of urban land expansion in this region during 1995-2005, and quantify its relationship with the driving factors. In recent 11 years, the total urban land area has increased linearly at an annual rate of around 45.55km^2, or 12.83% of the total urban area. The regression analysis reveals that urban expansion was driven by regional gross domestic product （GDP）, urban non-agricultural population, investment of fixed assets, annual mean salary of employees and real estate investment. In particular, the first two factors, （the growth of regional GDP and urban non-agricultural population） were the key driving forces of urban land growth, as revealed by the multi-regression. The partial correlation coefficient of regional GDP and non-agricultural population was 0.514 and 0.535 respectively, being much higher than other factors. It is therefore concluded that GDP and urban non-agricultural population are two explaining indicators of urban land expansion of the region. They can not only directly drive the expansion of urban land use, but also indirectly affect it through stimulating investment of fixed assets, annual mean salary of employees and real estate investment. Influenced by population growth and rapid development of private economy, the growth rates of per capita urban land area in mostly county-level cities are much higher than those of prefecture-level cities in Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou Region. One reason is that rapid development of private enterprises needs more factory buildings and employee dormitories; the other is excessive pursuit of high green ratio. Rapid development of private economy leads to scattered distribut

关 键 词：城市化 城市用地扩展 驱动力 苏锡常地区 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]