改进灰色预测模型在我国船舶订单预测中的应用  

Improving the Application of Grey Model in the Order System of Ships in China

作　　者：戴宝印[1] 谭家华[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学,上海200240

出　　处：《物流科技》2009年第6期44-47,共4页Logistics Sci-Tech

摘　　要：面对人民币升值、钢材等原材料价格上涨、国际金融危机的冲击和市场出现的急剧变化,全年全国承接新船订单5818万载重吨,同比下降40.9%;手持船舶订单2.046亿载重吨,同比增长28.7%。未来几年,世界造船市场的需求如何,中国船舶制造企业该如何积极应对?这些都是中国造船业必须要面对和思考的问题。文章从手持订单量出发,借助改进后的灰色预测模型,对未来两年我国造船行业做一个简单预测,以期对我国造船业的发展提供借鉴和参考。Facing with the appreciation of RMB, the spike of the raw materials and the worsening economic crises, our shipping industry still has receives substantial orders, amounting to 58.18 million DWT. Our shipping industry has undergone a decline of 40.9% compared with the same period last year. Our shipping industry has already had an order of 0.2046 billion DWT, increased by 28.7% compared with the same period last year. In the coming years, how to respond to the situation positively remains a key issue of Our shipping industry. Based on the data of hand＇held orders, this dissertation aims to forecast the future of shipping industry by applying the improved version of grey forecasting model for the reference of the development of the shipping industry.

关 键 词：灰色预测模型 手持船舶订单 预测 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]