中国西北干旱半干旱区年平均气温的时空变化规律分析  

Discipline of temporal and spatial variation of annual mean air temperature in arid and semiarid region in northwest China in the recent 46 years

作　　者：陈少勇[1,2] 郭江勇[1] 郭忠祥[2] 高蓉[2] 石圆圆[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]白银市气象局,甘肃白银730900

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2009年第3期364-372,共9页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基(40775057)资助

摘　　要：利用中国西北干旱区138个测站,近46年历年平均地面月气温资料,采用线性趋势分析、多项式拟合、EOF、REOF、Mann-Kendall、子波分析等方法,分析了干旱区年平均气温对气候变暖的响应。结果表明:(1)中国西北干旱半干旱区年平均气温近46年增温率为0.34℃/10 a。新疆西部、青海高原东部的部分地方受大地形背风坡影响有不显著的上升趋势,其余大部分区域增温显著,同步响应全球变暖。(2)年平均气温标准差分布不均匀。除南疆和海东-陇南一带相对较小,该区其余大部分区域年平均气温的年际变化稳定性差。(3)蒙陕甘宁-塔里木盆地是该区气温变化最敏感的区域。年平均气温的演变在干旱半干旱区一致性程度较高。从20世纪70年代初期开始发生降温-升温转型,1986年有一次显著突变,其后气温达到一个更显著的增暖时期;全区性的前10个偏热年,全部出现在20世纪90年代及以后,各分区的异常偏热年,大多数也出现在1990年以后;气温异常变化存在5年和10年左右的周期,从15年以上的变化层次来看,气温趋势还在偏高的位置。(4)年平均气温存在演变的地域差异,蒙新区和陕甘宁青区南北变化相反。(5)根据REOF分析将该区年平均气温异常细分为北部区、高原区、南疆区和东部区4个分区。西部干旱半干旱区年平均气温的转折存在区域差异,高原和南疆区单调增暖,无明显转折,北部区的转暖时间比较低纬度的东部大致要早5年左右。受高原"启动区"影响,其它区的突变比高原要晚3～10年,其它区的年代际变化比高原要晚1～2年。Using the mean surface air temperature data over the years 1961 -2006 of 139 stations within China northwest arid and semi-arid area （CNASA） and methods of linear regression analysis, multinomial fitting, EOF, REOF, Mann - Kendall, Glide T-examination, wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis etc. , we analyzed the response of the annual mean air temperature in the areas to climate warming. The result shows that （ 1 ） The war- ming rate of annual mean temperature in CNASA was 0. 34/10a during the period of 46a. Except that the west part of Xinjiang and east Qinghai Plateau＇ s partial places have unremarkable increasing trend and some areas of Qinghai＇ s Henan State have remarkable decreasing tendency, the other great parts of region are remarkable warming and synchronistically respond to the globle warming. （2） The standard deviation of annual mean temperature dis- tributes in non-uniform. Except the south boundary and south-eastern coastal region of China, Gansu area＇ s standard deviation is relative small and the stability of annual mean temperature＇ s interannual variation in the other greater parts of region is bad. （3） Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia and the Tarim Basin are the areas where the temperature changes most sensitively. The degree of annual mean temperature variation＇ s uniformity is higher in the arid and semi-arid area. From the beginning of 1970s, the temperature was transformed from decrease to increase and there was a remarkable mutation of it in 1986. After that the temperature got into a more remarkably increasing period. The entire area＇ s first 10 hot years all appeared in 1990s and after that, and 90% of various subdistricts＇ anomalous hot year also appeared after 1990. The anomalous temperature change has about 5-year and 10-year cycles. According to above 15-year climate change level, the temperature tendency also occupies the high position. （4） Annual mean temperature variation has the regional differences. In Inner Mongolia- Xinjiang and

关 键 词：中国干旱半干旱区 年平均气温 气候变暖 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]