加工贸易与河北省经济增长关系的实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Processing Trade and Economic Growth in Hebei Province

作　　者：刘然[1] 姚金安[1] 杨念[2] 

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学经济贸易学院,河北保定071000 [2]河北软件职业技术学院,河北保定071000

出　　处：《商业研究》2009年第6期96-99,共4页Commercial Research

基　　金：河北省科学技术研究与发展项目,项目编号:06457212D-3

摘　　要：相对于我国其他沿海省份而言,河北省加工贸易的发展相对落后。但近几年其发展速度呈现较快增长的趋势,对该省经济增长起到了一定的作用。本人选取1992-2007年河北省经济总量及加工贸易的数据,通过协整分析、建立误差修正模型及格兰杰因果检验等方法得出二者具有长期稳定的均衡关系及因果关系,从而得到加工贸易对该省经济增长的作用明显,应进一步扩大发展的结论。Compared with other coastal provinces in China, the development of processing trade in Hebei Province is relatively backward. However, its pace of development has showed faster growing trend in recent years, and played a certain role in the economic growth. Based on the data of the total economic output and processing trade between 1992 - 2007, this paper analyzes empirically the two variables in long - term and stable balance and causal relationship through the co - integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test. It comes to the conclusion that the government should further expand the processing trade Hebei Province.

关 键 词：加工贸易 经济增长 协整检验 误差修正模型 GRANGER因果检验 

分 类 号：F752.8[经济管理—国际贸易]