重庆山地月平均气温空间分布模拟研究  

Distributed Modeling of Monthly Mean Air Temperature of Rugged Terrain of Chongqing

作　　者：邱新法[1] 仇月萍[2] 曾燕[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学遥感学院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210044 [3]江苏省气象科学研究所,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2009年第6期621-628,共8页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：中国气象局气象新技术推广重点项目"基于DEM的我国太阳能资源评估"(编号:CMATG2006Z10)资助

摘　　要：利用月平均气温物理经验统计模型,结合重庆市及周边51个气象站1961—2000年常规气象观测资料和重庆市1∶25万DEM数据,充分考虑地形(海拔、坡度、坡向和地形遮蔽)、太阳辐射、长波有效辐射等因素对气温的影响,完成了复杂地形下重庆市山地100 m×100 m分辨率月平均气温空间分布的模拟。模拟结果能较好地反映气温的宏观分布趋势和局地分布特征,月气温模拟平均绝对误差最大为0.40℃,全年平均为0.21℃。采用交叉验证、个例年验证和野外考察资料验证对模拟结果和模型性能进行了多方面的考察,结果表明:交叉验证误差全年平均为0.26℃;个例年验证误差全年平均为0.30℃;8个野外考察点验证各月误差总体小于1.0℃。With a physically based empirical temperature model with DEM data of 1 ： 250 000 scale and routine meteorological data from 51 stations in and around Chongqing municipality from 1961-2000, we generated the spatial distribution map with resolution of 100 m× 100 m of monthly mean air temperature of rugged terrain of Chongqing municipality. The model gives an overall consideration of terrain （ altitude, slope, aspect, terrain-shielding） , solar radiation and effective radiation effects on temperature. Analyses show that the simulation results can well reflect the macro and local temperature distribution characteristics and the maximum mean absolute bias error is 0.40℃ for monthly temperature simulation and the annual average error is 0.21℃. Tests carried by cross-validation, case year data and field investigation data indicate that the annual average error of cross-validation is 0.26℃, case year test is 0.30℃ and the overall monthly average error of field investigation is less than 1.0℃.

关 键 词：重庆市 月平均气温 DEM 空间分布 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]