水库防洪优化调度风险决策模型及应用  

Risk Decision Model for the Optimal Operation of Reservoir Flood Control and Its Application

作　　者：李英海[1] 周建中[1] 张勇传[1] 刘力[1] 覃晖[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《水力发电》2009年第4期19-21,37,共4页Water Power

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)课题(2007CB714107);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(200701008);国家自然科学基金重点项目(50539140)

摘　　要：提出一种水库防洪优化调度风险决策模型,通过多目标防洪优化调度获取可行调度方案集,结合洪水预报误差进行风险分析,计算调度方案风险率。在此基础上,建立基于改进熵权的灰色关联分析模型,实现均衡考虑上下游风险的调度方案的灰色优选。将该风险决策模型应用于三峡水库防洪风险决策实例,确定了最佳洪水调度过程。This paper proposes a risk decision model for the optimal flood control operation of reservoir. With consideration of the flood forecasting error, risk analysis is done to calculate the risk rates for each feasible operation scheme obtained by multipurpose optimal flood control operation. On this basis, the grey correlation analysis model based on the improved entropy weight was established, which could make the grey optimum selection of these schemes by balancing both the upstream and downstream risks. This risk decision model was applied to the Three Gorges Reservoir to get the optimal flood operation process.

关 键 词：防洪调度 风险分析 随机模拟 熵权法 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]