中国粮食产量省区差距变化及其成因分析  

Analysis on the Shift of Provincial Gaps of China's Grain Production and Contributing Factors

作　　者：熊友云[1] 张明军[1,2] 刘园园[1] 金爽[1] 李瑞雪[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,兰州730000

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2009年第6期965-974,共10页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：甘肃省教育厅科研项目(0701-24);西北师范大学自然地理学重点学科资助

摘　　要：论文根据1978年来全国及各省统计数据,采用Theil指数、变动度等指标及岭回归分析方法,对我国省区间粮食生产差距及成因进行了研究。研究发现,尽管个别年份因部分粮食生产大省产量出现波动导致全国省区间粮食产量差距缩小外,1978年来我国省区间粮食产量差距总体越来越大,并形成了稳定的上升区、下降区及相对稳定区,而各区内大多中部、西南部省份粮食占全国比重与其经济总量占全国比重演变趋势一致,大多东部、西北部省份此趋势不一致。定量研究表明,省区间粮食种植比较效益、种植结构、粮食播种面积等差距的扩大推动了省区间粮食产量差距的扩大,而省区间粮食单产、财政支农资金、农业从业人员等差距的缩小也促使了省区间粮食产量差距的扩大。Based on national and provincial statistical data from 1978 to 2006, adopting index of Theil and variation of force, and Ridge Regression analysis method, this paper studies grain production gaps among provinces of China since 1979 and related influencing factors. The result shows that due to the fluctuations in grain production of certain major grain producing provinces in 1989, 1990 and 2000, the grain production gaps among different provinces in these three years became narrowed. But as a whole, the grain production gaps among different provinces have become greater since 1978 （Theil index rose up from 0. 07 in 1978 to 0. 15 in 2006）. As for the grain yield, increased region, the stable decreased region and relatively stable region have been formed in different provinces. Among the three regions, the increased region is mainly composed of the northern provinces, while the decreased region is mainly composed of the central and southern provinces, and relatively stable region is evenly distributed in South China and North China. The relationship between grain yield proportion and the status of economic development among the provinces in the three feature regions are quite different. The evolution trend of the proportion of grain production in most central and southwestern provinces to the national food production shares is the same as that of economic output of these provinces to the national economic output. However, the case of most eastern and northwestern provinces is inconsistent with this trend. Besides, the quantitative research found that as the provincial disparities of comparative benefit of grain planting, planting structures, planting areas widened, the gap of grain yield has enlarged. Meanwhile, the narrowing of the gaps of grain production, the agricultural support funds and farm workers among different provinces also widened provincial gaps of grain yield.

关 键 词：粮食安全 省区差距 成因 岭回归 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]