柑桔农业气象灾害风险评估及农业保险产品设计  

Risk Assessment and Agricultural Insurance Design of Agrometeorological Disasters Risk for Citrus

作　　者：娄伟平[1,2] 吴利红[3] 邱新法[1] 唐启义[4] 苏高利[3] 毛裕定 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,南京210044 [2]新昌县气象局,浙江新昌312500 [3]浙江省气候中心,杭州310017 [4]浙江大学农业与生物技术学院,杭州310029

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2009年第6期1030-1040,共11页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(30370914);中国气象局2009年业务建设项目“农业保险气象服务业务系统建设”;浙江省气象局重点专项项目(2006zd005)“浙江省农业保险气象服务技术研究”

摘　　要：根据多年生果树产量变化同树龄、大小年以及环境因子的关系,建立柑桔产量处理方法,分离出趋势产量、气象产量、营养产量。结合历史文献和气象产量与气象灾害的关系,运用农业气象灾害风险评估技术确定低温冻害、5月上半月热害指标及其对柑桔产量的灾损率。该产量处理方法应用于丽水市莲都区2006年柑桔总产量预测,误差为4.5%。针对柑桔农业气象灾害风险的不确定性,基于信息扩散原理,利用正态信息扩散技术将单一的样本观测值变为一模糊集的模糊数学方法,建立柑桔农业气象灾害风险分析模型,得到较为稳定并符合实际的风险评估结果。在风险定量分析基础上,从浙江省政策性农业保险经营的实际需要出发,综合区域产量保险和气象指数保险的优点,设计了农业气象灾害保险理赔指数,解决了农业保险中逆选择、道德风险以及灾后理赔时效低、理赔成本高的难题,为政策性农业保险可持续发展提供技术支撑。Basing on the theory of risk analysis of disasters and needs of policy-guided agricultural insurance, the agrometeorological disasters risk was assessed, and agricultural insurance product was designed for citrus in Lishui city, Zhejiang Province. First, based on the relationship between changes in perennial fruit trees production and trees age, size and environmental factors, and tak- ing the severe freezing damage＇ s year as the designated boundaries of separate section fitting, the model of citrus production approach was established by taking the citrus growing area in previous years and the time as factors. The result showed in Lishui city, the nutrition yield could be ignored; if there were years with agrometeorologieal disasters, the trend yield and actual yield were consistent, and meteorological yield could be ignored ; if there were years without agrometeorological disasters, the meteorological yield was caused by agrometeorological disasters. So the variation of citrus yield was caused by agrometeorological disasters. In years when agrometeorological disasters occurred, the effects of agrometeorologieal disasters on citrus were constant, and the loss rate caused by number i disaster was the product of previous disasters＇ surplus and the loss rate of number i disaster. Combing historical documents and relationship between meteorological yield and agrometeorological disasters, the grading indices and crop loss rate of freezing damage and high temperature damage in the first half of May to citrus planting are analyzed and determined. The method was used in citrus production forecast in Liandu district of Lishui City in 2006, error was 4.5%. In general, the agrometeorological disasters risk was uncertainty, in this paper, the information diffusion method was used to change single sample observations into fuzzy sets, and a quantitatively analyzing model for agrometeorological disasters risk was proposed, and realized stable and consistent results of the actual risk assessment. Following the quantitative

关 键 词：农业气象灾害 政策性农业保险 风险评估 信息扩散 保险理赔指数 柑桔 

分 类 号：S666[农业科学—果树学] S42[农业科学—园艺学]