基于协整关系的中国区域煤炭消费与经济增长比较研究  

Regional Comparison Study of Co-integration Relationship between Coal Consumption and Economic Growth in China

作　　者：张兆响[1] 廖先玲[2] 王晓松[1] 宋晓倩[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院,烟台264005 [2]山东科技大学,青岛266510

出　　处：《资源科学》2009年第6期1081-1087,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：教育部专项基金:“中国东西部煤炭企业资源优势整合研究”(编号:03JD630026);山东省软科学研究计划项目:“基于协整理论的山东省能源消费与经济发展关系研究”(编号:2007RKB240)

摘　　要：运用时间序列截面数据模型的计量分析方法及协整检验理论,对我国东部、中部及西部三个地区的煤炭消费与经济增长之间的协整关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:东部地区煤炭消费与经济增长之间具有稳定的长期均衡关系,但其关系是由经济增长到煤炭消费的单向关系;中部地区煤炭消费与经济增长二者之间既具有明显的双向长期因果关系又具有双向短期因果关系;西部地区煤炭消费与经济增长之间虽然存在长期协整关系,但短期因果关系并不成立。在此基础上,结合对全国和各地区1986年～2004年间的经济增长、能源及煤炭消费水平的分析,认为各地区煤炭消费与经济增长的关系之所以存在明显差异,主要是受到经济发展水平和经济运行机制等的影响;提出国家在相关经济政策和煤炭政策的制定及执行时必须正视这一差异,特别是在西部大开发的进程中,当务之急是要协调好煤炭(能源)与经济的发展关系,否则会加剧中国经济发展的区域失衡。Large population, vast land area, cultural and conceptual differences across regions and the imbalance in regional economic development has inevitably resulted in different relations between coal consumption and economic growth in different regions. In this paper, measurement analysis and co-integration theory of time-series cross-section data model are used to empirically study the co-integration relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in eastern, middle and western regions of China. The empirical results show that there is a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in the eastern region, but this is a unidirectional relationship from economic growth to coal consumption. In middle region of China, both an obvious bidirectional long-term causal relationship and a bidirectional short-term causal relationship can be observed. However, there is a long-term co-integration relation in western region and the short-term causality is not tenable. Based on these characteristcs, the data of economic growth, energy and coal consumption level from 1986 to 2004 in the country are analyzed. The results indicate that the relationship between coal consumption and economic growth is significantly different among various regions, and the main impacts are the level of economic development and economic operation mechanism. Certain policies have been put forward to promote the coordinated development of coal （energy） and economy in various regions of China. The author points out that the obvious distinctions of co-integration relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in eastern, middle and western region of China are very important. Therefore, these differences must be considered in the process of formulating and implementing national economic policies and coal-related policies. At present, China is putting in much greater effort to develop the western region than ever before, and the most urgent task is to coordinate the relationship between coal （

关 键 词：煤炭消费 经济增长 协整关系 区域比较 时间序列截面数据 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济] F124