饮食业油烟道火灾事故概率的模糊事故树分析  

Application of Fault Tree Analysis Based on Fuzzy Sets in Cooking Fume Tunnel Fire Accident

作　　者：袁巧[1] 谢正文[1,2] 曲方[1] 梁晓瑜[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国计量学院安全与环保研究所,杭州310018 [2]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,长沙410083

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2009年第6期49-51,共3页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：浙江省科技计划项目(编号:2007C23063)

摘　　要：根据常规事故树定量计算中基本事件概率的不确定性问题,通过引入模糊集的概念,将常规事故树中基本事件的发生概率模糊化,用三角形模糊数代替确定性发生概率,应用模糊数截集方法,推导了模糊事故树的相关算法。采用模糊事故树方法得到饮食业油烟道火灾事故发生概率,并进行了敏感性分析,找出对顶事件发生概率影响较大的基本事件,确认减小油烟道火灾事故发生的相关措施。研究表明,饮食业油烟道火灾事故概率的模糊事故树分析是切实可行的,有助于对饮食业油烟道火灾的认识、预防和扑救工作。As you know, these exists uncertainty and in.recision of each basic event in traditional fault tree analysis, so the fuzzy set theory is applied to deal with this kind of phenomenon. A triangular fuzzy number is introduced to represent the faihure prodability of a basle event. Fuzzy fault tree algorithm is devdoped by the cut method. The probability of cooking fume tunnel fire aecident is calculated by a furry fault tree. Main basic events affecting the occurrence probability of the top event are verified by a sensitivity analysis, which can be applied in the risk analysis of cooking fume tunnel rite accident. The research shows that it is practical to put the fuzzy fault tree into cooking fume tunnel fire accident analysis and the application will help the development of prohabilistic safety analysis.

关 键 词：饮食业油烟道火灾 模糊集 事故树分析 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：X928.7[环境科学与工程—安全科学]