基于MTV模型的中国房价与股价动态关系研究  

Research on the Dynamic Relationship of China's House Price and Stock Price Based on the MTV Model

作　　者：胡宗义[1] 刘亦文[1] 戴钰[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学统计学院,湖南长沙410079 [2]武汉理工大学经济学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2009年第6期77-82,共6页Journal of Statistics and Information

摘　　要：股市与房市之间的互动关系一直是争论的焦点。基于MTV模型对2003-2007年间的中国住房价格与股票价格间的互动关系进行了定量分析。结果表明:中国房地产市场与股票市场之间存在较高的正相关性,并且两者都具有很强的政策导向性,即随着利息、货币供应量等经济杠杆的作用,房价和股价都会产生相应变动。政府对房地产市场与资本市场的调控效率相对较高,这些都与中国的现实情况相吻合。The interactive relations between the stock market and the housing market have been the focus of debate. This article has carried out the quantitative analysis based on the MTV model on China home price and stock price＇s interactive relations during years 2003- 2007. Results show that China＇ s real estate market and the stock market has high correlation, and both have very strong impact on policy making, namely, interest rate, money supply, economic leverage can share prices and corresponding change. The government is relatively high to the real estate market and capital market＇s regulative efficiency, these agree with our country＇s realistic situation.

关 键 词：MTV模型 股市 房市 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]