转移支付对地方财政收入稳定效应的实证分析  

The Empirical Analysis on the Stabilization Effect of Transfer to Subnational Fiscal Revenue

作　　者：徐涛[1] 杨荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学,北京100081

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2009年第6期16-21,共6页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：清华大学产业发展与环境治理研究中心的资助;中国国家留学基金委的资助

摘　　要：本文利用1993-2005年中国31个省的财政面板数据,把偏离趋势值变动的比率作为因变量,运用固定效应模型和Prais-Winsten模型,实证分析了转移支付对省级财政收入的稳定效应。本文的实证结果表明转移支付对省级的财政收入在财政收入处于下降阶段时有较大的稳定效应,但是在财政收入处于上升阶段时转移支付仍然推动财政收入上升。所以,恰当的政策工具不是解决政府收入波动的"万能药",一个明智的财政政策可能被漠视,恰当的政策工具可能在使用时脱离正确的目标。因此,解决方案又回到基本的财政约束和政策纪律上来。This article use the 31 provincial fiscal panel data from 1993 to 2005 in China, and use the variance- from- trend as the dependent variable, and then use the fixed -effect model and Prais -Winsten model, make an empirical analysis on the stabilization effect of transfer to subnational fiscal revenue. The article provides evidence that the transfer has positive effects on subnational fiscal revenue during subnational fiscal revenue downturns, however, the transfer has positive effects on subnational fiscal revenue when subnational fiscal revenue upturns. Therefore, a rational fiscal policy and proper policy tools are not a panacea to governmental revenue shocks. A wise fiscal policy may be brushed aside ; appropriate policy instruments might as well be used off the right target. Therefore, the solution returns to the very basics of fiscal restraint and budgetary discipline.

关 键 词：转移支付 省级财政收入 稳定效应 

分 类 号：F810.7[经济管理—财政学]