用自回归预报黄渤海的底层水温  

Autoregression Model for Forecast of Bottom Temperature in Bohai and Huanghai Seas

作　　者：尹逊福[1] 李繁华[1] 孔祥德[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局第一海洋研究所

出　　处：《黄渤海海洋》1998年第2期18-22,共5页Journal of Oceanography of Huanghai & Bohai Seas

摘　　要：用自回归模型，对覆盖渤海标准水文断面上的２９个站和北黄海的１０个站的底层海水温度进行了预报。均方误差为０．７５℃，结果较好，方法简便，能够满足渔业生产的需要。Forecasts of 29 stations in the Bohai Sea and 10 stations in the northern Huanghai Sea were made using the autoregression model every 10ds. The r,m,s error is 0.75℃. This method is simple and easy. So it satisfies the need of marine fishery production.

关 键 词：自回归 渤海 水温预报 底层水温 黄海 

分 类 号：P731.31[天文地球—海洋科学]