人民币升值的宏观经济影响  

Macro Effects of RMB Exchange Rate Appreciation

作　　者：王曦[1] 冯文光 

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南学院 [2]诺安基金管理有限公司研发部

出　　处：《统计研究》2009年第6期3-12,共10页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"人民币定价;汇率政策与汇率制度若干问题研究"(06BJY115);全国优秀博士学位论文作者专项资金资助项目(200504);中山大学经济研究所的资助论文为"中国金融国际年会(CICF2009)"会议论文

摘　　要：针对我国汇率和利率制度的特殊安排,本文首先建立一般均衡理论模型以体现我国特定的经济结构。我们证明,在外生变量的约束下,我国存在一个产出、价格、货币供给、出口和进口相互作用的一般均衡系统。本文以理论模型作为指导,建立结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型以估计系统的动态调节特征。最后通过脉冲响应分析,分析了人民币升值对宏观经济的动态影响。结论是:升值对国际贸易的作用过程呈现"J曲线"效应;升值减少了内生货币发行并确有助于抑制价格水平;升值在短期内降低了总产出,但长期内则稍有助于产出增长;升值的影响具有长期性和持久性。本文还阐述了升值动态作用的经济学机理,并据此提出了相关政策建议。Regarding to the special arrangements of exchange rate regime and interest rate system in China, the paper sets up a general-equilibrium model to highlight the specific structure of China＇s macro economy. It＇s proved that there exists a general equilibrium system among output, price, monetary supply, export and import under exogenous constraints. We then use the SVAR （Structural Vector Auto Regression） technique to estimate the system＇ s dynamics feature under the guidance of the theoretical model. Finally, with impulse-response analysis, we examine the dynamic effects of RMB exchange rate appreciation. It is concluded that RMB appreciation exhibits a ＂J-curve＂ effect; appreciation decreases endogenous monetary supply and does help to suppress inflation; appreciation reduces output in the short run, while it mildly increases output growth in the long run; appreciation effect tends to last chronically and permanently. The economic rationales of dynamic appreciation effects are also expatiated and policy orientations are put forth accordingly.

关 键 词：人民币升值 宏观影响 经济结构 一般均衡 SVAR 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]