转型期货币供给内生决定机制：基于货币当局资产负债表的解析  

The Endogenous Mechanism of China's Money Supply During Transition:Evidence From Central Bank's Balance Sheet

作　　者：李治国[1] 张晓蓉[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学管理学院讲师

出　　处：《统计研究》2009年第6期13-22,共10页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“流动性失调环境下货币政策转型与通货膨胀管理:基于DSGE模型及其实证方法的研究”(70801018);教育部人文社会科学研究项目“中国转型期的新宏观经济计量模型:行为、机制与反馈”(06JC790011);上海市社科规划课题“金融全球化背景下的中国对外资产负债与经济调整”(2008BJB016)的研究资助

摘　　要：本文通过货币当局资产负债表这一新的视角分析转型期中国货币供给内生决定机制。货币当局所采取的不同资产负债管理方式,不但直接影响基础货币形成过程,而且改变公众的现金持有比率与商业银行的准备金率,从而间接影响货币乘数。本文通过求解持有现金偏好和准备金需求的效用损失最小化函数,提出了货币当局资产负债结构影响货币乘数的微观机理。基于协整分析和误差修正模型的实证研究表明,相对于利率因素的较弱影响,以对外净资产持续上升和央行票据陡然增加为主要特征的货币当局资产负债结构调整,对货币乘数和货币供给形成过程影响显著。为缓解货币当局所承载的过度压力,货币政策调控应逐渐从以资产负债为主的数量型调整方式向以基准利率为主的价格型调整方式转变。This paper investigates China＇s money supply mechanism and its micro foundation by analyzing the central bank＇s balance sheet structure. As the central bank takes different ways in managing different items of assets and liabilities, change in the balance sheet structure will affect the public＇ s currency holdings and the commercial banks＇ reserve requirements and bring a change to the money multiplier consequently. Empirical results from unit root tests, co-integration analysis and ECM models show that both increasing foreign assets and central bank notes issuing have affected the money multiplier and money supply more significantly than the interest rate does. This suggests that the central bank should rely more on the price tool of interest rate than the quantitative adjustment of asset and liabilities in making monetary policies, so as to relieve the pressure of excess money supply.

关 键 词：货币供给 内生决定机制 货币当局资产负债表 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]