江苏省里下河地区梅雨洪涝灾害成因与规律的探讨  

FORMATIVE CAUSES OF MEI-YU FLOODING DISASTER IN THE LIXIAHE RIVER (JIANGSU) AND ITS TREND PREDICTION

作　　者：陈家华[1] 陆菊中[2] 潘益农[2] 黄万春 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象局,南京210009 [2]南京大学大气科学系,南京210093 [3]江苏省气象台,南京210008

出　　处：《气象科学》1998年第2期167-173,共7页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：短期气候变化与江苏省重大气候灾害预测研究资助;"九.五"国家科技攻关项目!96-908-04-03-05

摘　　要：本文根据里下河地区建湖、兴化、盐城、宝应和阜宁共5个代表站，对1954-1993年共40年的梅雨期降水量和西太平洋副高脊线、588位势什米的西脊点等资料进行分析，发现里下河地区洪涝灾害与梅雨期开始时间早、持续时间长、暴雨频发和雨带稳定在里下河地区有关，而后者又与副热带高压活动特点以及西风带环流特征有密切的关系。分析上述5个代表站梅雨量、副局脊线的所在纬度和588位势什米特征线西脊点的功率谱，得出了2-3年、5年和12年的准周期变化，为预测里下河地区洪涝灾害的变化趋势提供了一定的依据。In this paper,the total rainfalls data of 40 years in Mei-Yu season of fivestations (i. e. Jianhu, Xinghua, Yancheng, Baoying and Funing) in the Lixiahe River Basinand ridge line and western ridge point of 588 isoline of Pacific subtropic high, as well as thezonal index are used to study the characteristics of flooding disaster in this region. it is foundthat these characteristics are mainly related to the features of Mei-Yu season(early beginning,long sustained time,and concentrated rain belt steady there);at the same time,they arealso directly related to the circulation systems of high -middle -low latitude. In this paperthe power spectrum method is also used to analyse the total rainfall in Mei-Yu season ofthis five representative stations, subtropical high ridge,and western ridge point of 588 isoline. It is shown that there exist quasi-periods of 2- 3 years, 5 years and 12 years.

关 键 词：梅雨 洪涝 灾害 江苏 里下河地区 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]