不确定条件下投资项目现值的临界值分析  

Under Uncertainy Condition the Present Value of Investment Projects Threshold Analyize

作　　者：刘奕均[1] 龙振海[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200052

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2009年第12期3574-3577,3583,共5页Science Technology and Engineering

摘　　要：在不确定条件下项目投资现值的分析已不能再停留在传统的NPV分析,项目未来现金流现值大于投资现期投入则投资,若小于则不投资的框架内。充分把握未来不确定性,积极运用项目管理者的柔性决策空间,运用实物期权思想及其二项式期权定价模型确定项目中的实物期权价值,在基于实物期权的分析框架内考虑实物期权价值,寻找投资项目现值投资决策的临界值。Investment projects in the future uncertain conditions present value analysis no longer to stay in traditional NPV analysis. If project future cash flows to present value is greater than investment current input it will be invest, if not less than investment current input it will not be invest. Fully grasp the future uncertainty, actively use the soft policy space project managers, using mentality of real option and options pricing of binomial models and the determination of the project＇s value in real options. Based on the analysis in the framework of real options to consider value of real options, for present value of investment projects threshold in the investment decision-making.

关 键 词：不确定性 实物期权 项目投资现值 临界值 

分 类 号：F830.59[经济管理—金融学]