圆形分布法分析石家庄市麻疹发病的季节性和长期趋势  

Analysis of seasonality and long-term trend of measles with circle distribution in Shijiazhuang city

作　　者：张世勇[1] 高秋菊[2] 林志芳[2] 万丽[1] 吴丽红[2] 冯长龙[2] 

机构地区：[1]石家庄市疾病预防控制中心,河北石家庄050011 [2]白求恩军医学院预防医学教研室,河北石家庄050081

出　　处：《临床荟萃》2009年第11期962-964,共3页Clinical Focus

摘　　要：目的分析石家庄市2001～2007年麻疹发病的季节性和长期趋势,为积极防治麻疹流行提供参考依据。方法对全国传染病疫情信息网络直报系统上报的石家庄市麻疹疫情资料,用圆形分布法分析麻疹发病的高峰日和高峰期,用相关分析法分析麻疹发病的长期趋势。结果①石家庄市麻疹发病存在明显的季节性,其季节分布特征是,麻疹全年均可发病,11月患病人数开始增多,次年4～5月达高峰,6月以后下降,8～10月发病最低。②2001～2007年麻疹发病均存在明显的高峰日和高峰期(P<0.01),各年发病高峰日不相同或不全相同(F=42.969,P<0.01),总高峰日在4月19日,高峰期为2月13日至6月25日。③2001～2007年石家庄市麻疹发病存在明显的升高趋势(γ=0.814,P=0.026)。结论石家庄市麻疹发病存在明显的季节高峰,发病高峰日多集中在4～5月,高峰期集中在2月上旬到6月下旬。近几年麻疹发病呈明显升高趋势,应围绕此发病高峰期采取紧急防治措施。Objective To analyze the seasonality and long-term trend of measles in Shijiazhuang city from 2001 to 2007 ,so as to provide scientific basis for measles control and prevention. Methods The measles incidence data were derived from China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention. The seasonal characteristics including peak day and crest time of measles were analyzed by circle distribution. The long-term trend of measles was analyzed by correlation. Results ①Measles incidence has obvious seasonality in Shijiazhuang,that is,measles might occur in each month all the year, which gradually increased from November, and the peak time arrived in April and May, but gradually decreased from June. The disease number was in lower level from August to October. ②There were obvious peak day and crest time of measles from 2001 to 2007（ P 〈0.01）. The peak day of measles in each year was different or partly different （ F =42. 969, P %0.01）. The peak day all the year was April 19,and the crest time was February 13 to June 25.③The measles incidence has a significant increase trend （7= 0. 814, P = 0. 026）. Conclusion There is obvious seasonality of measles,which is concentrated in April and May,the crest time is concentrated from the first ten days of February to the last ten days of June. The measles incidence has an obvious increase trend in recent years, emergency preventive precautions must be adopted according to the crest time.

关 键 词：麻疹 季节 发病率 流行病学 

分 类 号：R511.1[医药卫生—内科学]