兰成渝成品油管道滑坡地质灾害失效概率预测模型  

Study of the Model for Forecasting the Landslide Geological Disasters Failure Probability of the Lan-Cheng-Yu Product Oil Pipeline

作　　者：彭星煜[1] 张鹏[1] 孙德青[2] 刘春亮[3] 苏志刚 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学,四川成都610500 [2]中国石化集团安全工程研究院,山东青岛266071 [3]中国石油管道兰成渝输油分公司,四川成都610036 [4]蜀渝石油建筑安装公司川西北分公司,四川绵阳621700

出　　处：《管道技术与设备》2009年第3期3-6,共4页Pipeline Technique and Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50678154);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20060615003)

摘　　要：分析了兰成渝成品油管道受地质影响的形式和原因以及灾害发生的严重后果,突出了对地质灾害危险地段进行检测和安全评价的重要性。通过对管道滑坡地质灾害失效影响因素(如坡度、土壤稳定性和滑坡的卫星监控等)的分析,建立了管道滑坡地质灾害失效概率预测模型,最后将该失效概率模型运用于兰成渝管道1#滑坡点,并和1#滑坡体稳定性分析得结果进行对比分析,以验证模型的正确性,进而建立一种长输管道滑坡地质灾害风险评价模型。Analyzed in this work are the geologic effects on,and the causes of disasters in the Lanzhou-Chengdu-Chongqing products oil pipeline as well as the serious consequences, higlighting the importance of detection and safety evaluation of such disasters in some sections by referring to such pipeline landslide failures as slope, soil stability and landslides satellite monitoring a- nalysis. Thus, a landslide prediction model is built for the pipeline failure probability arising from geological disasters. Then, the failure probability model is applied to the Lanzhou-Chengdu-Chongqing pipeline 1# point landslide, comparative analyses and practical tests are conducted of the stability of 1# point landslide to verify the accuracy of the model. As a result,analytic methods for predicting long-distance pipeline landslide disaser are obtained from the assessment model.

关 键 词：成品油管道 地质灾害 失效概率评价 

分 类 号：TE8[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]