基于气象模式的汉江流域洪水预报系统  

Flood forecasting system of Hanjiang Basin based on meteorological model

作　　者：郭生练[1] 张俊[1] 郭靖[1] 陈桂亚 陈华[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]长江水利委员会水文局预报处,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2009年第3期1-5,共5页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50679063,50809049);国际科技合作重点项目(2005DFA20520);湖北省自然科学基金(2007ABA061)

摘　　要：针对现行洪水预报方法的不足与汉江流域的特点，建立了汉江流域MM5气象预报模式和VIC分布式水文模型，耦合集成3种预报模式并开发了基于气象模式的汉江流域洪水预报系统。应用2005-2007年汛期日水文气象资料进行验证，结果表明所建VIC分布式水文模型具有较高的模拟与预报精度。基于气象模式的汉江流域洪水预报系统可为汉江流域的中长期水文预报和水资源综合管理提供技术支撑和决策参考。According to the limitations of the existing flood forecast methods and the characteristics of the Hanjiang Basin, the MM5 meteorological model and VIC distributed hydrological model of the basin are established. Three coupled forecasting models are integrated and the application software system for flood forecasting is developed for the Hanjiang Basin. The models are verified using the daily hydrological and meteorological data from the flood period of 2005-2007. Results show that the VIC distributed hydrological model has high simulation and forecast accuracy. It can provide technical support and decision references for medium- and long-term hydrologic forecasting and integrated water resources management for the Hanjiang Basin.

关 键 词：气象模式 分布式水文模型 耦合预报 汉江流域 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P338.9[天文地球—水文科学]