WRF模式对弱强迫系统中雷暴预报个例研究  

A case study of forecasting thunderstorm in the weakly forced system with WRF model

作　　者：付伟基[1,2] 陆汉城[1] 王亮[1] 张入财[3] 吕作俊 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学气象学院 [2]解放军96251部队气象室 [3]成都军区气象中心 [4]河南省三门峡市气象局

出　　处：《气象科学》2009年第3期323-329,共7页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40575022);国家重点基础研究专项(2004CB418301)

摘　　要：用WRF2.2版本,针对2006年7月13日洛阳市区,发生在副高边缘偏东南暖湿气流中的雷暴进行了模拟预报,结果表明WRF模式能描述弱强迫天气尺度系统中的中小尺度对流系统,能捕捉到常规天气图上难以分辨出来的雷暴单体。模式输出的中尺度要素场可以确定雷暴发生的地点;模式探空的对流有效位能、抬升指数、沙瓦特指数、K指数随时间演变曲线的拐点,能指示雷暴发生的时间。个例分析表明WRF模式在预报弱强迫天气系统雷暴时具有较好的性能,用WRF模式来作雷暴的分析预报是一条可行的途径。In this paper a thunderstorm in Luoyang on July 13, 2006, which locates in southeast warm flows at the edge of West Pacific subtropical high, was simulated and forecasted with the WRF （version 2.2） model. The results show that the WRF model can accurately describe the mesoscale convective systems forced by weak synoptic systems and capture the thunderstorm cells which can not be distinguished on conventional weather map. The output elements can identify the position of the thunderstorm. The inflexion point of the evolution curve of the four convection parameters--Convective Available Potential Energy, Lifting Index, Showalter Index and K index, which are derived from the model sound- ing, can give an indication for the occurrence time of the thunderstorm. Case study shows that WRF model has a fine predictability of thunderstorms under the condition of weakly forced systems ; so it is a feasible way to analyze and forecast the thunderstorms with WRF model.

关 键 词：WRF模式 雷暴预报 对流参数 

分 类 号：P457.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]