福建省主要农业气象灾害风险研究  

Study on the risk of agro-meteorological disasters in Fujian province

作　　者：张星[1] 陈惠[1] 吴菊薪 

机构地区：[1]福建省气象局,福州350001 [2]浙江省东阳市气象局,浙江东阳322100

出　　处：《气象科学》2009年第3期394-397,共4页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：福建省科技厅重点项目(2006Y008)

摘　　要：灾害风险评估是灾害预防的重要工具,本文基于区域灾害系统论的观点,试图对福建省主要气象灾害风险进行比较全面地研究。首先根据信息扩散方法,构建了福建农业气象灾害灾损风险评估模型,计算给出了福建省主要气象灾害相对于不同灾损程度的风险分布的信息。然后通过灾害加权熵的计算,对福建省主要气象灾害的总体风险水平进行定量比较,结果表明,在福建省主要的农业气象灾害当中,干旱和洪涝灾害的风险值高,而风雹和冻害的风险值较低;干旱略高于洪涝,低温冻害的风险水平最低。Risk assessment of disasters was the important tool for disasters prevention. In view of the regional disaster system theory, the risks of agro-meteorological disaster have been investigated completely in Fujian province. First, a method based on information diffusion theory was introduced in this paper, then a model to assess the risk of losses due to agro-meteorological disasters was developed, by which the risk distribution of the main disasters according to the different degree of disaster damage was calculated. Then, calculating the weighed disaster entropy can be used to compare the risk level of agro-meteorological disasters quantitatively. The results show that the largest risk in Fujian province comes from flood, followed by drought, and the most trivial was freezing damage.

关 键 词：农业气象灾害 信息扩散 灾害加权熵 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学]