考虑时变因素的配电系统可靠性分析  

Reliability analysis of distribution system considering time-varying factors

作　　者：董雷[1] 李佳[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京102206

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2009年第12期6-10,共5页Power System Protection and Control

摘　　要：在传统配电系统可靠性分析的基础上,考虑了实际运行过程中气候条件、元件老化这两类不确定因素,使元件故障率成为时间的函数,并将其与时变负荷模型和停电损失费用模型相结合,基于Monte-Carlo法编制了可靠性评估算法,以计算负荷点及整个系统的可靠性与经济性指标,并通过算例分析说明了考虑不确定时变因素后对可靠性指标的影响程度,以此说明本算法的有效性。Uncertainty factors about weather condition and aging of components are considered in the paper under conventional reliability analysis of distribution system, which make failure rate of components be function of time. Combined time-varying load model with interruption cost model, program of reliability evaluation is practiced in the paper using Monte-Carlo method, which can calculate reliability and economic indices of load points and system. Example of distribution system is used to illustrate effects on reliability indices considering uncertainty time-varying factors, which can explain effectiveness of the program.

关 键 词：配电系统 可靠性 不确定时变因素 MONTE-CARLO法 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]