强震成功预报的曙光  

The dawn of successful prediction of major earthquakes

作　　者：李玶[1] 杨美娥[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2009年第6期19-27,共9页Strategic Study of CAE

摘　　要：20世纪50年代以来,我国30多次成功预报了中、强地震的发生;近20年来国外有些地震学家对几次强震预测失败感到失望,逐渐将地震研究的主攻方向转变为对建筑物抗震能力的鉴定、加强建筑物抗震措施和建立现代数字台网,以便迅速准确确定强震的发生地点,可以即刻到现场救援;国内地震界部分地震学家受他们的悲观情绪的影响,也放弃了对强震预报的努力。所幸的是部分专业和业余地震学家仍在强震预报领域做出了不懈的努力,取得了可喜的成绩。Since 1949, Chinese scientists have successfully predicted occurrence of many major earth-quakes, such as the Haicheng M 7.3 event in 1975 and the Asian Game Village shock of 1990. In recent 20 years,however, some seismologists abroad have taken a disappointed and pessimistic view to earthquake prediction be-cause of several failures. They suggest that the efforts should turn toward other fields, such as identification of building＇ s earthquake - proof capability, enhancement of house strength, and development of precise observational systems which will facilitate fast locating of future major temblors and emergent relief on site. Such a pessimistic feeling has also influence some Chinese researchers of the seismological community who attempted to give up efforts for earthquake prediction. Meanwhile other scientific workers are insisting in experiments and practices in this field and achieved some inspiring results. In this paper, we present several representative cases to illustrate that earth-quakes are predictable under some conditions.

关 键 词：汶川地震 强震预报 强震发生断层 

分 类 号：P315.2[天文地球—地震学]