青藏北块M≥7强震有序网络结构与汶川8级大震预测回顾  

Orderly network structure of M≥7 strong earthquakes in the north block of Tibet-Plateau and retrospect of prediction for Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake

作　　者：门可佩[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学数理学院,南京210044

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2009年第6期82-88,共7页Strategic Study of CAE

摘　　要：自1700年以来,青藏北块地区M≥7强震具有显著的有序性,其主要有序值为53～54a,26～27a,11～12a与3～4a等。根据翁文波信息预测理论,运用自组织网络技术构建本区7级强震信息有序网络结构,努力探索具有中国特色自主创新的强震中长期预测方法。据此有序网络结构,可对2008年汶川8级大震进行预测和分析。此外,还讨论了汶川大震的成因,同时对本区未来7级以上强震提出预测意见:2012,2016,2027年前后本区仍有可能发生7级左右强震。研究结果表明:强震和强震链是可以预测的,强震活动所呈现出的网络特性很可能是大地震形成的一种机制。笔者提出的有序网络方法,对于强震的中长期跨越式(特别是长时间、长距离)预测具有独特的效果,可为建立我国早期强震预警系统提供有效工具。Since 1700, the north block of Tibet Plateau. ing to the information prediction M〉~Tstrong earthquakes have had an obvious commensurability and orderliness in The main orderly values are 53 -54 a, 26 -27 a, 11 - 12 a and 3 -4 a. Accordtheory of Weng Wenbo and self-organization network technology, we try to explore the practical method for strong earthquake prediction with Chinese characteristics, and conceive strong earthquake with magnitude 7 informational network structure. Based on this, the 2008 Wenchuan M 8.0 great earthquake was predicted and M ≥7 strong earthquakes will happen around 2012, 2016 and 2027 in this area. Meanwhile, the cause of formation about Wenchuan Earthquake has been discussed primarily. The results show that strong earthquake and strong earthquake chain can be predicted. This method has a unique effect on mid-and-long term prediction for strong earthquake.

关 键 词：青藏北块 信息有序网络结构 汶川大震 强震预测 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]