中国出口贸易增长的可持续性研究——基于贸易随机前沿模型的分析  

Research on China's Export Growth Persistence

作　　者：施炳展[1] 李坤望[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学国际经济贸易系

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2009年第6期64-74,共11页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

摘　　要：本文借助随机前沿分析模型,将中国出口贸易的增长分解为贸易潜力变化、贸易效率变化、贸易投入变化三个方面。研究发现,贸易潜力呈递增态势,贸易效率呈递减态势;贸易潜力的上升远大于贸易效率的下降,两者共同决定了中国出口贸易迅速增长的趋势;贸易投入对于贸易增长的作用小于贸易潜力,但不可忽视。由于中国的贸易增长主要是源于贸易潜力的推动,因此中国的出口增长是可持续的。但是,中国的贸易效率较低,因此在加速对外开放的同时,必须深化国内市场改革。Based on the trade stochastic frontier model, we decompose China＇s export growth into trade potential change, trade efficiency change and trade input change. The conclusion is ： trade potential shows an increasing trend; trade efficiency shows a decreasing trend; trade potential increase overwhelms trade efficien- cy decrease, which determines the fast growth trend of China＇s export trade. ; trade input effects on trade growth is smaller than that of trade potential, however it can not be neglected. As China＇s export trade growth attributes a lot to export potential growth, China＇s export growth is persistent. However, with the low trade efficiency, we must deepen market reform, while accelerating foreign opening.

关 键 词：贸易潜力 贸易效率 随机前沿模型 

分 类 号：F125.4[经济管理—世界经济]