中国的“热钱”规模究竟有多大?——基于热钱流出渠道的估算  

What on Earth is the Scale of "Hot Money" in China:An Estimation based on the Channels of Hot Money Outflows

作　　者：万光彩[1] 刘莉[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学金融学院 [2]安徽财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2009年第6期31-37,共7页World Economy Studies

基　　金：作者主持的2007年度教育部人文社会科学一般项目(编号:07JC790048)的阶段性成果;2008年度教育部人文社会科学一般项目(编号:08JC790001);安徽省教育厅自然科学基金项目(编号:KJ2007B258)的资助

摘　　要：现有关于热钱规模的估测方法基本上都限于资本流入的渠道,鲜有基于热钱流出渠道的估测,这在我国目前实施资本项目非对称管制的情况下,夸大了热钱的规模。本文基于误差与遗漏项目和经常项账户下收益汇出项目两种热钱流出渠道,分别估测了两种热钱规模。估测结果表明,误差与遗漏项目下的热钱在2004和2007年发生了大规模的流入,截至2008年上半年,其规模为2450.42亿美元,仅为外汇储备存量的13.55%;而经常项目下收益汇出渠道的热钱则随着FDI存量的逐步增加而不断积累,2003年以来其规模已经高达4254.82亿美元。Existing methods used to estimate the scale of hot money are almost limited to channels of capital inflows, while estimates based on the channels of hot money outflows are rarely found, resulting in an overestimation of the scale of hot money in China which is now carrying out the policy of asymmetric capital controls. Based on the errors and omissions item and export earnings item under the current account of Chinese balance of payments, this article estimated the scale of hot money with the above-mentioned two channels of hot money outflows respectively. It is estimated that large sums of hot money flowed in from 2004 to 2007 under the errors and omissions item, and at the end of the first half of 2008, the size of hot money reached 245.042 billion U.S. dollars, only accounting for 13.55 percent of the stock of foreign exchange reserves. While the export earnings under the current account go up along with the gradual increase of FDI stocks, reaching 4254.82 billion U.S. dollars since 2003.

关 键 词：热钱 储备资产调整 误差与遗漏 收益汇出 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]