盐城市海岸带环境预警体系研究  

Study on Environment Early Warning System of Coastal Zone in Yancheng

作　　者：王计平[1] 邹欣庆[2] 

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学旅游管理系,上海200237 [2]南京大学海岸与海岛开发教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《环境监测管理与技术》2009年第3期19-22,74,共5页The Administration and Technique of Environmental Monitoring

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40371048);华东理工大学人文社科校内基金资助项目(YZ0127115)

摘　　要：简述了海岸带环境预警系统的组成,将海岸带环境预警的指标体系分为警情指标和警兆指标两大类,建立了海岸带环境预警指标体系。以盐城市为例,应用时间序列曲线模型对盐城市1995年—2010年的各项预警指标进行了拟合、预测。在此基础上,采用综合指数法,对到2010年的环境发展警情和警度进行了预报。研究结果表明,盐城市海岸带环境多数年份处于中警状态,系统指数处于比较严重的状态。Systematical constitution of coastal early-arning system was discussed and the warning index system was divided into warning situation and warning sign according to direct and direct methods. The indexes were simulated and predicted by time series curve model using data of Yancheng coastal zone environment during the period of 1995 to 2006. The warning situation and warning sign were forecasted for 2010 by synthetic index method. The results showed that the Yancheng coastal zone environment in most years from now on would be under middle-warning situation and the index would be under heavy warning.

关 键 词：海岸带 环境预警体系 盐城市 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]