基于生态足迹模型的重庆市涪陵区可持续发展研究  

Study of Sustainable Development in Fuling District of Chongqing Municipality Based on the Ecological Footprint Model

作　　者：李营刚[1] 蒋勇军[1,2] 丁馨怡[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学地理科学学院,重庆400715 [2]西南大学岩溶环境与石漠化治理研究所,重庆400715

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第6期73-77,共5页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金："973"计划前期研究专项(2008CB417208);国家自然科学基金资助项目(40672165)

摘　　要：以生态足迹模型为基础,通过对重庆市涪陵区统计年鉴为主要数据来源的分析,对涪陵区1997-2006年的生态足迹进行计算,并且利用线性回归模型预测2007-2012年生态足迹和生态承载力的变化情况.结果表明:涪陵区1997-2006年的人均生态足迹由1997年的1.129 2 hm2/人增加到2006年1.304 8 hm2/人,而人均生态承载力基本维持在0.85 hm2/人左右,同期生态赤字2005年增长到0.542 4 hm2/人.从1997-2006年生态足迹和生态赤字虽有小幅度波动,但总体增长趋势明显.线性回归模型显示,2012年涪陵区人均生态足迹为1.602 6 hm2,人均生态承载力为0.701 4 hm2,人均生态赤字达到0.901 2 hm2,增长趋势明显.基于以上分析得出涪陵区现有发展模式受到挑战,提出减少生态赤字的措施.Based on an “Ecological Footprint” （EF） model, the ecological footprint from 1997 to 2006 of Fuling District of Chongqing was analyzed, and the potential changes for the period 2007-2012 in ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Fuling were predicted, using linear regression models. The results demonstrated that the per capita ecological footprint increased from 1. 129 2 to 1. 304 8 hectare in Fuling during 1997-2006, the per capita ecological carrying capacity remained at the level of 0. 85 hectare, and the ecological deficit reached 0. 542 4 hectare in 2005. The ecological footprint and the ecological deficit showed a general trend of increase in the past 10 years with slight fluctuations. The linear regression mod- els showed that the EF and DF will continue to increase during 2007--2012 and per capita EF, per capita ecological carrying capacity and per capita ecological deficit will be 1. 602 6, 0. 701 4 and 0. 901 2 hectare, respectively. Based on the above analysis, the paper offers some policy options for decreasing ED to tackle the challenges confronted by Fuling in its development.

关 键 词：可持续发展 生态足迹 生态承载力 生态赤字 涪陵 

分 类 号：Q149[生物学—生态学]