区域气候模式RegCM_NCC在华东地区的业务应用(Ⅲ):10年春、秋季回报试验  

The Application of Reginal Clime Model (RegCM_NCC) in Operational Forcast (Ⅲ): 10-Year Hindcast Experiments of Spring and Autumn

作　　者：董广涛[1] 陈伯民[1] 杨雅薇[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海区域气候中心,上海200030

出　　处：《高原气象》2008年第B12期42-51,共10页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：上海市气象局2007科技开发项目"区域气候模式联合研发与业务试验";上海市气象局启明星专项项目"华东地区汛期旱涝显著影响因子敏感性试验"共同资助

摘　　要：使用国家气候中心全球海气耦合模式(T63)嵌套区域气候模式(RegCM_NCC)对1998—2007年春、秋季中国地区降水气温进行了数值回报试验,并分别利用国家气候中心的6级Ps预报评分及简化的Ps预报评分方法对模式回报结果进行了检验。结果表明,模式对中国春、秋季温度和降水均表现出良好的预报技巧,其中模式秋季回报评分高于春季,模式对气温的回报效果优于降水。区域模式对秋季气温的回报效果优于全球模式,而对春季气温的回报效果则与全球模式相当。文中设计了3组试验,以筛选出模式业务预测的最佳积分参数设置,结果表明,大范围回报效果优于小范围,积分步长为60 s时回报效果好于180 s;对春季预报,从1月开始积分效果最佳,秋季预报7月开始积分效果最好。10-year hindcast experiments （1998--2007） of the surface air temperature and precipitation of sping and autumn over the Eastern China are performed by using regional climate model （RegCM_NCC） that is nested in a global atmosphere-ocean coupled model, and the results of the hindcast experiments are analyzed by using Ps skill and the simplified Ps. The results indicate that the model has some capabilities in predicting the air temperature and precipitation of sping and autumn, especially the scores of the au- tumn higher than that of the spring; and the hindcasts of temperature better than that of precipitation. The hindcast scores of RegCM NCC are higher than those of the National Climate Center T63 global model in spring and autumn. Three group experiments are designed to select the sutiable parameters of the model for operation over the eastern China. The results show that the hindcasts with lagger domain are better than those with smaller domain; smaller integration step has higher score; the initial integration from Januarary 1 has the highest scores for spring hindcast; and the integration from July are best for autumn.

关 键 词：区域气候模式 6级预报评分方法 10年回报试验 最佳积分参数的筛选 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]