水域通航安全评估未确知测度模型  

Unascertained Measure Model of Waters Navigation Safety Evaluation

作　　者：王新辉[1] 李顺亮[1] 钟碧良[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州航海高等专科学校,广东广州510725

出　　处：《中国航海》2009年第2期39-44,共6页Navigation of China

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金资助项目(04300614);广东省科技计划资助项目(2006B37202007)

摘　　要：水域通航安全评估是一个涉及多因素的系统工程。为水域通航安全性进行定量评估,应用未确知测度理论建立了水域通航安全评估模型。利用此模型对珠江口水域的担杆水道、大濠水道、伶仃水道、虎门水道、大虎水道、莲花山西航道、莲花山东航道、黄埔水道等航段进行了评估。评估结果与实际相符,证明建立的模型有实际应用价值。Waters navigation safety evaluation is a multi-factor system engineering. In order to evaluate navigation safety quantitatively, the indexes of evaluation such as channel length, ship breadth, ratio of ship breadth to channel breadth, visibility, current, wind, ship traffic, amount of turning and crossing point, effect of VTS（Vessel Traffic Serriees） management, and navigational aids etc, are selected. An evaluation model of navigation safety based on uncertainty theory is established. By using the model, safety evaluations for the Dan-gan channel, Da-hao channel, Lin-ding channel, Hu-men channel, Da-hu channel, Lian-huashan channel and Huang-pu channel in the Pearl River waters are carried out. Evaluation results indicate that they agree with the actual cases and the model is proved to have application values.

关 键 词：水路运输 未确知测度 通航安全 评估 模型 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]