售电市场中售电量的风险分析  

Risk Analysis on Electricity Sales in Power Sale Market

作　　者：康重庆[1] 庄彦[2] 胡江溢[3] 贾俊国[3] 林弘宇[3] 

机构地区：[1]电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室(清华大学电机系),北京市海淀区100084 [2]国网北京经济技术研究院,北京市宣武区100761 [3]国家电网公司营销部,北京市西城区100031

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2009年第19期78-84,共7页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50777031);新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-07-0484)~~

摘　　要：售电市场是电力营销的分析对象。售电市场受到众多不确定因素的影响,使得电网企业未来的售电量存在较大的不确定性。分析了售电市场中风险的来源及其影响,以售电量为着眼点,提出基于序列运算理论的售电市场风险分析方法,通过算例对该方法进行了直观的说明。进一步探讨了售电市场中此类风险分析问题的实质及其对于电力营销工作的启示,提出了该方法的实用化操作过程。该方法对于预估售电市场的潜在风险、提前制定风险防范策略具有重要的参考价值。Power sale market is the analysis object of power marketing. Affected by many uncertain factors, the future electricity sales of the electric corporation have great uncertainty. The risk sources and their influences on power sale market were analyzed, and a risk analyzing method, which is based on sequence operation theory, was brought out. A numeric example was given to demonstrate the method. Furthermore, the paper discussed the essence of risk analysis issue of power sale market and its revelation to power marketing, and proposes the application process of this method. This paper has reference value in predicting potential risk of power sale market and making risk prevention strategy in advance.

关 键 词：电力市场 营销 售电 风险分析 序列运算理论 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]