中国经济收敛速度的估计  

Estimation of Speed of Convergence of China's Economy

作　　者：周亚虹[1] 朱保华[2] 刘俐含[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学经济学院,200433 [2]上海交通大学经济学院,200052

出　　处：《经济研究》2009年第6期40-51,共12页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金的资助(项目号70871073);上海财经大学“211工程”三期重点学科建设项目的资助

摘　　要：长期经济增长存在收敛或发散的可能性。经济增长的收敛状态是人均产量、资本存量和消费的增长率都趋向外生技术进步率决定的均衡增长途径,而经济增长的发散状态是经济增长率加速变化的现象。判断经济增长的收敛或发散需要估算经济增长的收敛速度。本文利用中国1978年至2006年间的30个省份的人均GDP数据,采用更符合经济增长模型的收敛假说本意的半参数变系数面板数据模型估算经济增长的收敛速度,得到以下研究结论:中国经济还处于加速增长的发散状态;富裕地区的经济增长向收敛状态过渡;相对于富裕地区,相对落后地区的经济增长的发散现象更为明显,存在经济落后地区追赶富裕地区的趋势。It is well known that Neoclassical growth model implies that, in long-run, economy may converge or diverge. Convergence means that the growth rate for output per capita only depends on growth path determined by the exogenous technological progress rate. While the divergence means that economy would exhibit accelerated growth rate and the growth rate of output per capita is increasing. One way to judge whether the economy is in convergence or divergence state is to estimate the speed of convergence. Based on a semi-parametric varying coefficient panel data model, by using provincial level data in China from 1978 to 2006, this paper shows that, on one hand, China＇s economy is diverging with high growth rate now, and on the other hand, there exists the tendency for convergence in richer areas, and the trend of catching up effect in the poorer areas. Furthermore, for the conclusions obtained in this paper, we give economic explanations, which is related to resource restriction and government policy.

关 键 词：收敛速度 变系数模型 面板数据 半参数估计方法 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F224