发电投资周期的形成机理与风险防范  

Forming Mechanism of Investment Cycle of Electricity Generation and Its Risk Prevention

作　　者：程俊瑜[1] 胡汉辉[1] 臧宝锋[2] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学集团经济与产业组织研究中心,江苏南京210096 [2]国家开发银行青岛市分行,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《河海大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2009年第2期59-62,67,共5页Journal of Hohai University：Philosophy and Social Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70673010)

摘　　要：从投资动态性、决策不确定性等方面分析了发电投资周期的形成机理，指出发电投资周期与经济增长周期的滞后正相关性，结合我国电力市场和制度环境特点对2003—2006年的发电投资高峰进行了经济学解释。研究表明，由于发电投资周期与需求增长周期通常不同步且过度反应，故有必要对其进行干预以防范波动风险。最后提出了防范发电投资周期性波动风险的政策措施建议。This paper studies the investment cycle of electricity generation and its formation and points out that it lags behind the cycle of economic development.The forming mechanism of the investment cycle is analyzed from the perspective of dynamic features of investment and the uncertainty of decision-making.An economic explanation of over-investment on electricity generation from 2003 to 2006 is given based on specific situation of the electricity market and policy system in China.The research findings indicate that it is necessary to interfere with the investment cycle to prevent fluctuating risks as it does not synchronize with the cycle of demand and often over-react to demand cycle of electricity.Then,this paper proposes relevant measures on preventing risks on the investment cycle of electricity generation.

关 键 词：发电投资周期 形成机理 滞后正相关 风险防范 

分 类 号：F037.1[经济管理—政治经济学]