基础设施的系统动力学模型及其应用  

A System Dynamic Model for Infrastructure and Its Application

作　　者：王其藩[1] 徐波[1] 贾建国[1] 杨建中 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《系统工程理论方法应用》1998年第1期58-65,共8页Systems Engineering Theory·Methodology·Applications

摘　　要：本文从系统理论的基本思想出发 ,建立了一个基础设施和区域经济的系统动力学模型 ,以求较全面和系统地研究基础设施与经济发展的关系。模型综合考虑了经济增长中的供给推动和需求拉动作用 ,并从基础设施的供求比率出发 ,引入了基础设施对经济发展的制约度量化指标 ,以动态地考察基础设施与经济发展的相互作用。该模型可用于研究基础设施和区域经济的协调发展问题。使用该模型 ,初步模拟分析了上海和长江流域的基础设施的基本情况及它们与经济发展的关系 。In this paper, guided by the fundamenfal concepts of system theory, the authors set up a system dynamics (SD) model of infrastructure and regional economy, and tried to find a comprehensive and systematic approach to study the relation ship of infrastructure and economy growth. In the model, the authors described the economy growth stimulated by force from both the pull of demand and the push of supply. A ratio of infrastructure's supply and demand, and a quantitative and synthetical index of infrastructure's limits to economic growth were defined. The mutal relation and interaction between infrastructure and economy were explored. The model can be used to study the coordinated development of infrastructure and regional economy. With this model, the simulations and basic analysies of the infrastructure and economy growth of Shanghai and Yangtze River Basin were conducted. At last, serveral policy suggestions were put forward.

关 键 词：系统动力学模型 基础设施 区域经济 协调发展 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]