T63月动力延伸预报产品的检验  

The Test on Monthly Dynamical Extended Range Forecast Products of T63

作　　者：汪丽[1] 杨淑群[2] 杨小波[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川省气象局气象台,成都610072 [2]四川省气象局气候中心,成都610072

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2009年第2期41-44,共4页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：四川省气象局2006年重点课题"动力延伸预报产品在青藏高原东侧的释用研究"

摘　　要：采用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和T63谱模式月动力延伸预报产品资料,对200、500hPa高度场及200hPa、700hPaU、V风场进行相关系数、距平、距平同号率、距平相关系数的分析,得出如下结论:月动力延伸预报产品对极涡、南亚高压、副热带高压预报能力较强,夏季副热带系统预报偏强,西风带系统预报偏弱;冬季西风带系统预报偏强,副热带系统预报偏弱。西风带和副热带系统的距平误差基本反映出影响我国年季气候变化主导系统的进退及预报误差。By using the NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed date and monthly dynamical extended range forecast products of T63 model, the analysis of the correlation coefficients, anomaly, the accuracy of anomaly sign, the anomaly correlation coefficients about geopotential height at 200 hPa, 500 hPa fields, and U, V wind at 200 hPa, 700 hPa fields could be acquired. The results are as follows： monthly dynamical extended range forecast products of T63 model are good at simulating the Polar Vortex, the South Asia high and the Subtropical high. The simulated subtropical systems in summer and the westerlies systems in winter are stronger than the reality systems, while the simulated westerlies systems in summer and subtropical systems in winter are weaker than reality systems. The anomalous errors of westerlies and subtropical systems basically present the forecasted errors and the movement of the dominant systems about annual climate change.

关 键 词：月动力延伸预报产品 相关系数 距平 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]