基于新等级标准中国登陆热带气旋气候及变化特征  

Climatic Characteristics of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over China Based on New Grade Standards

作　　者：刘燕[1] 林良勋[1] 黄忠[1] 程正泉[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州中心气象台,广州510080

出　　处：《气象科技》2009年第3期294-300,共7页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40575021);广州中心气象台科研基金共同资助

摘　　要：利用1949-2006年热带气旋（TC）年鉴资料，根据2006年新制定的TC等级标准，分析了登陆我国TC的气候特征。结果表明：登陆TC中强热带风暴（STS，38．5％）最多，其余依次为台风（TY）、热带风暴（TS）、强台风（STY）和超强台风（SuperTY）。59％的STY和66．7％的SuperTY在台湾省登陆，尽管登陆广东的TC最多，但登陆的STY和SuperTY却很少。7～9月是TC登陆活跃期，而8～9月登陆TC平均强度最强。登陆TC频数具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征，其中登陆TC频数呈弱的减少趋势，而TY及以上级别TC频数则有增加趋势。在全球气候变暖背景下，登陆TC的生成源地有向北移的趋势，然而近年来南落明显。登陆TC的平均强度出现减弱趋势，但进入21世纪以来，平均强度显著增强，尤其是TC逐年强度极值表现更为明显。登陆TC的平均登陆点无明显的南北偏移，但逐年登陆点最北纬度在20世纪70年代中期以后有南落现象，以35°N以南为主。Based on the 1949 -- 2006 Tropical Cyclone Yearbooks and the new tropical cyclone （TC） grade standards, a climatological analysis of landfalling TC over China is carried out. Results show that, out of all landfalling TC, severe tropical storm （STS） takes up a maximal proportion of 38.5%, then typhoon （TY）, tropical storm （TS）, severe typhoon （STY） and super typhoon （SuperTY）. The 59% STY and 67Y0 SuperTY land over Taiwan Island. Guangdong is the province that is attacked mostly frequently by TCs, but scarcely by STYs and SuperTYs. The most active period for TCs is from July to September with the strongest mean intensity in August and September. There are obvious interannual and interdecadal changes in the frequency of landfalling TCs, with a weak decrease tendency in the total landfalling TCs and an increase tendency in those categorized as TYs, STYs and SuperTYs. Under the background of global warming, the landfalling TCs, averagely, show a trend of northward movement in the formation source region and weak decrease in intensity in recent several decades. Since the beginning of the 2000s, there is an obvious southward movement in the formation source region and a significant increase in mean intensity for landfalling TCs, especially for the annual maximum central wind and minimal central pressure. There is no obvious change in the mean latitude of landfalling location for all TCs in the past decades, while the annual northernmost latitude moves southwards, mostly below 35°N since the middle 1970s.

关 键 词：热带气旋 登陆频数 等级标准 生成源地 登陆地点 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] U41[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]