琼州海峡沿岸雾统计特征及天气学预报指标  

Statistical Characteristics of Fog along Qiongzhou Strait Coast and Its Synoptic Forecasting Indexes

作　　者：许向春[1,2] 张春花[3] 林建兴[3] 吴名杰 翁小芳[3] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学系,兰州730000 [2]海南省气象科学研究所 [3]海南省气象台 [4]海南省气象信息中心,海口570203

出　　处：《气象科技》2009年第3期323-329,共7页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：中国气象局新技术推广项目"华南沿海海雾预报方法研究及系统开发"(CMATG2007M22);国家自然科学基金课题"琼州海峡大风规律及预报方法研究"(40765002);2008年中国气象局基建项目"天气要素精细(乡镇)预报业务系统建设与改进"共同资助

摘　　要：利用海口站1961～2006年高空地面观测资料，分析了琼州海峡沿岸雾的气候统计特征。结果表明：琼州海峡沿岸雾目的年际变化呈现了显著的减少趋势。20世纪70年代初期和90年代初期为雾日减少的两个气候突变期。雾日减少与气候变暖密切相关，夜间最低温度升高是引起海峡雾日减少的主要原因。琼州海峡沿岸雾多出现在冬春季节，一天中出现雾的峰值时间为06：00～07：00，消散峰值时间为08：OO～09：00。利用1987～2006年NCEP再分析资料，总结了产生琼州海峡沿岸雾的3种天气形势，根据雾的类型提出了相应的预报指标。The climatic statistical characteristics of foggy weather along the Qiongzhou Strait coast are analyzed by using the surface observation and radiosonde data of Haikou Station from 1961 to 2006. The result shows that as far as long-term trend are concerned, the foggy days along the Qiongzhou Strait coast show a significant linear decrease trend, and the two climatic abrupt decrease periods are the early 1970s and the early 1990s. The fog days have good negative relation with diurnal minimum temperature; that is, the climate warming is the main reason for fog decrease. Fogs form more frequently in winter and spring, appearing from 06：00 to 07：00 in the morning and disappearing 1 to 2 hours later. Based on the reanalysis of data from NCEP from 1987 to 2006, three weather patterns of fog along the Qiongzhou Strait are summed up and forecasting indexes are put forward as well.

关 键 词：雾日数 趋势变化 天气形势 预报指标 

分 类 号：P468.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] U674.192[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]