T213数值预报产品对云南秋季强降水预报能力检验  

Examination of T213 Products' Abilities Forecasting Heavy Precipitation in Autumn of Yunnan

作　　者：蔡爱萍 

机构地区：[1]云南玉溪市红塔区气象局,云南玉溪653100

出　　处：《防灾科技学院学报》2009年第2期23-28,共6页Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention

摘　　要：利用Micaps系统下的T213数值预报产品从环流背景、散度场、温度场、水汽通量和降水预报对2005年10月29日云南中部及以南地区暴雨天气进行分析,结果表明:T213数值预报UV场对这次强降水的中低层影响系统切变的位置作了准确预报,强降水区的预报范围与实况接近,散度场、温度场、水汽通量对强降水天气有较好的预报指示意义。Using the T213 numerical forecasting products with Micaps system, according to the circulation background, divergence field, temperature field, water vapor flux and precipitation forecast, the author analyzes the rainstorm of October 29, 2005 in the central and southern areas of Yunan. The results show that： the T213 numerical UV field accurately forecast the location of low-level impact system shear of this heavy precipitation, the forecast of heavy precipitation area is close to reality, divergence, temperature and water vapor flux play a guiding role for heavy precipitation weather.

关 键 词：冷锋切变 强降水 T213数值预报产品检验 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]