老年多器官功能障碍综合征早期预测评分系统的预测价值  

Prediction value of the early prediction score system of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome in the elderly

作　　者：谭清武[1] 李庆华[1] 王春英[1] 唐静怡[1] 

机构地区：[1]解放军白求恩国际和平医院干部病房三科,石家庄050082

出　　处：《中华急诊医学杂志》2009年第6期611-613,共3页Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine

基　　金：白求恩国际和平医院“十一五”计划课题（2007044）

摘　　要：目的评估MODSE早期预测评分系统筛查MODSE高危人群、早期预测MODSE发病的价值。方法393例60岁以上肺部感染病例分为非MODSE组（n=224）和MODSE组（n=169）。采用MODSE早期预测评分系统对两组进行评分，比较两组评分的差异。绘制MODSE早期预测评分受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线，计算ROC曲线下面积及不同预测分值对MODSE发病预测的敏感度和特异度，确定最佳预测阈值。结果MODSE组评分显著高于非MODSE组[（19．36±12．049）vs．（45．78±20．257），P〈0．001]；MODSE早期预测评分ROC曲线下面积为0．889，面积的95％可信区间为（0．857—0．920）（P〈0．001）；取预测分值27．5分时，预测MODSE发病的敏感度和特异度均较为理想，分别为82．8％和80．3％。结论MODSE早期预测评分系统对筛查MODSE高危人群、早期预测MODSE发病具有很大价值，可用作MODSE高危人群的筛查工具。Objective To evaluate the prediction value of the early prediction score system of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome in the elderly （MODSE）. Method A total of 393 patients with pulmonary infection, who were above 60 years old, were divided into non MODSE （ n = 224） and MODSE group （ n = 169） and were scored by the early prediction score system of MODSE. Independent-samples t Test was used to analyze the difference of forecast score between MODSE and non MODSE group. Receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve was drawn, and the area under the curve was calculated. The prediction accuracy of scores for MODSE was assessed using sensitivity and specificity, and the optimal forecast point for MODSE was found. Results The score of MODSE group was higher than that of non MODSE[ （ 19.38 ± 12. 049） vs. （45.78 ± 20. 257）, P 〈 0. 001 ]. The area under the ROC curve was 0. 889 （ P 〈 0. 001 ） and 95 % （0. 857 - 0. 920）. As the value of forecast score was 27.5, the sensitivity of the early prediction score system of MODSE was 82.8 %, the specificity of the early prediction score system of MODSE was 80.3 %. Condusions The early prediction score system of MODSE is valuable in prediction of MODSE, which may be used to forecast MODSE and find the high risk population of MODSE.

关 键 词：早期预测评分系统 多器官功能不全综合征 老年人 预测 

分 类 号：R459.7[医药卫生—急诊医学] R364.5[医药卫生—治疗学]