基于恶劣气候条件的停运率建模及电网充裕度评估  

An Outage Rate Model and System Adequacy Assessment Based on Adverse Weather Conditions

作　　者：孙荣富[1] 程林[1] 孙元章[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学电机系电力系统国家重点实验室,北京市100084

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2009年第13期7-12,88,共7页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金优秀国家重点实验室专项基金(50823001);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2004CB217908)~~

摘　　要：基于载荷在恶劣气候条件下对输电元件停运率的影响,考虑到气候条件和电力系统运行工况的不确定性,首先将停运率与载荷之间的确定性模型模糊化;然后将风力载荷、冰力载荷和线路潮流水平作为输入变量,构建3个输入变量的停运率模糊if-then规则和模糊推理系统;最后对模糊推理结果进行解模糊化,得到特定运行工况下停运率的确切值,以便于分析与气候条件相依的输电线路停运率对互联系统可靠性的影响。根据上述步骤可分析极端气候条件引起线路停运率变化对互联电力系统可靠性的影响。对于RTS-79系统,假设气候条件影响5条区域间的联络线,在3种气候条件下分别计算线路停运率,并求解分析气候条件对互联系统可靠性的影响。By taking into consideration the uncertainty of the weather condition and system operating status, the model for certainty between load and outage rate is converted into a fuzzy one as wind or ice is certain to cause load influence on the transmission components outage rate. Then the fuzzy if-then rules of three input variables and fuzzy inference system are built to model the condition-based outage rate, and defuzzification is applied to obtain an exact non-fuzzy （crisp） value from a fuzzy set to evaluate power system reliability in a particular adverse weather condition. According to the weather condition based line outage rate model, multi-area reliability levels are solved and analyzed. Suppose 5 lie lines in RTS-79 are influenced in normal weather, adverse weather and extremely adverse weather conditions respectively. The line outage rates and reliability levels are calculated under different weather conditions to analyze the influence of weather conditions on the multi-area system reliability.

关 键 词：停运率 气候条件 模糊推理系统 风力载荷 冰力载荷 解模糊化 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]