计及风险调整贴现率和期权估价的电力投资决策方法  

Decision-making method for power investment considering risk-adjusted discount rates

作　　者：卢键明[1] 周修研[1] 金爽[1] 曾鸣[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学工商管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《华东电力》2009年第6期985-988,共4页East China Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70671041)

摘　　要：在比较分析风险调整贴现率法(RADR)与期权估价法(OT)两种金融理论应用于电力行业的有效性与局限性的基础上,根据当前我国电力行业的发展和未来建立电力期货市场的要求,通过整合风险调整贴现率法和期权估价法,对当前项目投资的现值收益标准(PVRR)进行改进。实例表明,改进后的现值收益标准更适用于投资决策,有助于决策者在电厂建设项目或电网购售电交易中更准确地预测风险,作出更为合理的决策。On the basis of comparing and analysing the validity and limitations of Risk Adjusted Discount Rates theory （RADR） and Option Theory（OT） in electric power industry, and according to the current situation of the electric power industry and the requirement for further development of the electricity futures market, the author improves the Present Value Revenue Requirement（PVRR） for project investment by combing RADR and OT. Case studies show that the improved version is more appropriate for making investment decisions. And it could be of help for the regulators to predict risks in power plant construction projects and electricity exchanging transactions.

关 键 词：电力投资决策 风险调整 贴现率 期权估价 

分 类 号：TM-9[电气工程] F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]