游客变化的多尺度波动特征及作用过程分析--以盐城麋鹿生态旅游区为例  

An Analysis of Multi-Fluctuation Characteristics and Functional Process of Tourist Flow——A Case Study of Yancheng David’s Deer Ecotourism Area

作　　者：袁林旺[1] 俞肇元[1] 黄震方[1] 顾秋实[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏南京210046 [2]中山大学旅游学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2009年第7期27-33,共7页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：“973计划”前期研究专项课题(2007CB416602)

摘　　要：本文以江苏盐城麋鹿生态旅游区为例,采用TRAMO/SEATS模型和小波分析方法进行了游客序列的季节调整和多尺度分解。表明景区游客增长以2003年为界分为两段,后期游客数量明显上升但增速变缓,短期内的异常变化主要受控于景区政策调整及经营策略变化。基于分解组分建立的CART模型揭示了多尺度作用过程,在景区发展初期,游客数量的小幅波动对趋势影响明显,而相对稳定的客源市场形成后,游客变动对趋势影响变小,更多体现于不同尺度波动的耦合作用。The paper, taking Yaneheng David＇s Deer Eeotourism Area in Jiangsu Province as a study ease, makes seasonal readjustment and multi-decomposition of tourist series by adopting Tramo/Seats model and the method of wavelet analysis. It shows that the increase of tourist numbers was divided into two parts with the year 2003 as a limit. Number of tourists rose markedly, but the growth rate became slower in the latter stage. The irregular variations were affected by the policy adjustment and the changes of operational strategy. CART model was established to disclose the multi- functional process based on each decomposed component. In the initial stage, small fluctuation of the number of tourists had marked impact on the trend, while the impact beeume smaller after the relatively stable tourism-generating market was formed.

关 键 词：游客变动 季节调整 盐城麋鹿生态旅游区 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]